破产姐妹
别只盯着黄岩岛了，中国刚在南海腹地落下一步棋，或改变南海格局,始皇聊历史,原创 别只盯着黄岩岛了，中国刚在南海腹地落下一步棋，或改变南海格局,中沙大环礁的战略价值,远非普通科研站点,中国的“规则之网”,结语_我的网站
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As an old saying in both Chinese and Japanese goes, "Bad deeds travel a thousand miles." This means that wrongdoing will eventually spread far and wide, becoming known to all.
Ignoring strong opposition at home and abroad, the Japanese government has officially inaugurated the "National Intelligence Bureau." Dubbed by some Japanese media outlets and opinion leaders as a postwar institution close to the "Tokko", or Special Higher Police - which targeted critics of the Japanese government ahead of World War II (WWII) - the new bureau has been met with widespread criticism and protests ever since its establishment on July 31.
What exactly is Japan's "National Intelligence Bureau"? What is the background of its organizational structure and leadership? What impact could its deep entanglement with US intelligence agencies have on regional security? And what strategic ambitions of the Japanese authorities lie behind its creation? In this story, the Global Times takes a closer look at this newly established intelligence agency and examines the dangerous attempts by Japan's right-wing forces to break free from the postwar order and revive a militarist path.
Striking a historical nerve
On July 31, Japan held the first meeting of its new National Intelligence Council chaired by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and launched its secretariat, the National Intelligence Bureau, reported The Mainichi on the same day.
Although the full details have not been made public, the meeting was believed to have confirmed plans to draw up the first-ever strategy to guide intelligence-gathering and analysis activities, as well as to move forward with consideration of a "anti-espionage" bill aimed at countering covert operations by foreign powers, NHK reported the same day.
The bureau's launch date has struck a historical nerve in some Asian countries, victims of Japanese aggression during WWII.
Hiroshi Onishi, vice president of the Japan-China Friendship Association, told the Global Times that Japan's decision to establish the body on July 31 is a date that evokes memories of the notorious Unit 731 bacterial warfare squad of imperialist Japan, and is bound to remind people in China and other Asian countries of that dark history.
The Japanese government should consider how this timing may be perceived by people in other countries, especially in China, he said.
Under a law to establish the National Intelligence Council, passed by the Japanese Diet in May 2026, Japan is building a new intelligence system centered on its National Intelligence Bureau.
According to a July 31 story by the Xinhua News Agency, the bureau, which integrates intelligence functions from Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Justice and the National Police Agency, had been described by the public as the "command center" of intelligence operations.
Why did Japan establish this bureau? Establishing this bureau enables the Japanese government to "make sound decisions based on higher-quality, timely information amid today's complex and challenging international environment," The Japan Times quoted Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara as saying on July 31.
However, to some Chinese scholars in Japanese studies, explanations like this are little more than a cover for the current right-wing Takaichi administration's real agenda.
"Of course, the Japanese authorities need to put forward some seemingly plausible justification; otherwise, they would have no way to explain it to the public," Da Zhigang, a research fellow at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
Da said that the Takaichi administration's push for the reform of the intelligence system is directly tied to Japan's military expansion, its drive to strengthen military capabilities and constitutional revision.
"The real purpose is still institutional expansion - to make the intelligence system more compatible with, and better serve, the series of military expansion and geopolitical strategies Japan is now advancing," he noted.
Adding uncertainty
The National Intelligence Bureau largely inherits the roughly 730 personnel and functions of its predecessor, the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office, with around 30 new posts being authorized to be added, according to The Japan Times.
The bureau reports directly to the Japanese prime minister, and has centralized intelligence functions that were previously dispersed across multiple ministries and agencies under Japan's cabinet office, which overturns Japan's postwar decentralized intelligence architecture, Da said.
"Compared with the system of mutual checks and constraints designed under Japan's pacifist constitution after the WWII, the country's current intelligence apparatus is highly centralized," Da told the Global Times. "Constraints that were once built into the Japanese constitution, which has set forth pacifism, now seem to be gone."
If the bureau is a new engine of centralization in Japan's intelligence system, then Kazuya Hara can be called the engine's first operator. According to media reports, Hara, the bureau's first director, joined Japan's National Police Agency in 1990, and had also served at Japan's embassies in Russia and the US. In 2019, Hara became executive secretary to the then prime minister Shinzo Abe, and in 2023 he began serving as director of Japan's cabinet intelligence.
In May, shortly after the legislation was passed, Hara reportedly made a special trip to the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) headquarters. FBI Director Kash Patel said in a post on X that Japan's initiative would "greatly enhance our shared partnership," and said he looks "forward to fully supporting them and working with them on cybersecurity, counterintelligence, espionage and counterterrorism to strengthen our cooperation," Japan's Jiji Press reported on May 8.
Moreover, according to a July 13 report by The New York Times, during the process of setting up the bureau, Japan had "privately approached partners such as the United States, Australia and Germany in recent months for advice on technology, staffing and priorities."
"Intelligence officials from the United States, Japan's main security ally, have offered input on cyberdefense systems and methods of countering industrial espionage, according to two people familiar with the conversations," the NYT report said.
A tightly bound intelligence alliance is adding multiple layers of uncertainty to the security landscape in Northeast Asia. Da said that the bureau's establishment would amplify Japan's intelligence-driven disruptive power in bilateral and multilateral geopolitical interactions in Northeast Asia, while its deep entanglement with intelligence networks beyond the region could further intensify the compound shock to the regional security order.
"For countries around Northeast Asia, the costs of social contact and other forms of interaction will rise," Da said.
The establishment and operational launch of a brand-new intelligence agency means that Japan is already making advance intelligence preparations for a potential war, Lü Yaodong, a research fellow from the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
East Asian countries, as well as all peace-loving forces around the world committed to safeguarding global peace, must remain highly vigilant, Lü said.
Accelerating Japan's remilitarization agenda
China has a time-honored saying: "Those who persist in wrongdoing will bring destruction upon themselves."
Less than two weeks after its launch, Japan's National Intelligence Bureau has already come under broad criticism. What it has triggered is not only questions about the functions of a new agency, but also deep concern over whether Japan is drifting away from its postwar path of peace and back toward militarism.
One major criticism is that the intelligence power in Japan has become overly concentrated, while checks and balances remain inadequate. The law to create the National Intelligence Council, which governs the bureau, "does not include any mechanism to oversee the activities of intelligence agencies" despite concerns, as reported in a May 29 editorial piece by The Mainichi.
For many people in Japan, another concern is that the new intelligence agency lacks institutional safeguards to protect citizens' rights. On May 27, the day Japan's Upper House passed the law, large numbers of people reportedly spontaneously gathered outside Japan's Diet, holding banners reading "Stop revising the constitution and expanding the military" and "Oppose the National Intelligence Bureau bill that will monitor citizens."
It is completely unfeasible for Japan to set up an intelligence agency detached from corresponding restraints, said Makoto Ito, a Japanese lawyer and the director of the Japan Institute of Constitutional Law.
If the bureau and related measures such as the proposed anti-espionage law are allowed to push forward on their own, outside a democratic oversight framework, the risks will only be magnified, Ito told the Global Times.
More concerning still, some observers pointed out that the establishment of the National Intelligence Bureau is not an isolated move, but a key link in the Takaichi administration's systematic effort to break free from the postwar order and push Japan further down a path of rearmament.
Japan is strengthening intelligence centralization through the creation of the bureau, while also accelerating the deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles and conducting live-fire drills, said Lü. This indicates that Japan is advancing its military expansion strategy on two fronts at once: intelligence gathering and actual combat strike capability. He criticized these moves as not only a serious shock to the regional security landscape, but also an open challenge to the international order of peace.
The Takaichi administration is devoting energy to intelligence-system reform precisely when the public urgently needs relief from persistent inflation and a rising cost of living, and that these reforms directly serve Japan's military expansion, force buildup, constitutional revision and even efforts to undermine the country's Three Non-Nuclear Principles, said Da.
"In fact, this also shows that Japan's right wing has now reached a stage where it simply no longer cares about people's livelihoods," he said.
The establishment of Japan's National Intelligence Bureau is "another negative development in Japan's domestic and international policies on security," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on July 31, the bureau's launch date.
"For some time, Japan has been accelerating its remilitarization agenda under the pretext of national security and external threat. Such moves have put the regional peace and stability at risk and drawn widespread concern across the international community," Mao warned.
"Those running the Japanese government need to learn lessons from history and act prudently," she noted.
。 中国南海黄岩岛一直是舆论的焦点，很多人却忽略了一个更加核心的“博弈场”，那就是中沙大环礁。 最近，中国在南海落下一步棋，中国科学院批准设立中沙群岛海洋生态环境野外观测研究站。 看名字，这似乎只是一个和环境相关的研究站，但实际上，这步棋却可能改变南海的现有局势。 中沙大环礁，这片隐没在海底、鲜为人知的区域，拥有巨大的潜在价值，中沙大环礁是一座巨型沉没环礁，全部隐没水下，最浅处水深约8至9米。 它南北长达约140公里，东西宽约60公里，面积达到8400平方公里，是新加坡国土面积的十倍，然而，这片巨大海域至今无法直接驻人，只能依靠科考船进行短暂观测。 值得注意的是，中沙大环礁是南海盆地的中心地带，其地理位置极为重要，处于南沙群岛与西沙群岛之间。
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相比周围区域，它更接近南海的核心腹地，建设一座海洋生态观测站，不仅是对自然资源的科研保护，也是中国强化对这一区域长期管理的一步。 目前，中沙大环礁受水深、补给等技术条件限制，暂时无法实现直接的规模化开发，但通过观测站的设立，中国成功在这片区域扎下科研战略的第一颗“钉子”，实现从短期巡航到长期驻扎的跨越。
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一个看似低调的科研决定，却让南海“生态大数据”的“空白区域”逐渐被填补。 那么，这座观测站选择的具体位置又在哪里？真正落脚点又透露了哪些信息？ 从地理条件来看，中沙大环礁并不是这次获批观测站最终落地的理想地点，其水域全部隐没水下，水深较大，无法建起长期驻人的设施。
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而且，大环礁距离中沙群岛东端的黄岩岛有约300多公里的距离，无法覆盖到黄岩岛周边的观测海域。 因此，最为合理的推测是，新的观测站地址大概率选在了黄岩岛。
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黄岩岛具备适宜站点建设的天然条件，礁坪面积广阔，露出水面的礁石坚固，为后续建设提供了良好的基础条件。
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如果站点建在这里，中国就能对周边海域实行稳定的长期观测和资源掌握，此外，黄岩岛距离马尼拉约300多公里，这种近距离位置让菲律宾对中国动向格外敏感。 一旦这个新观测站按照计划在黄岩岛建设完成，将实现多重价值，首先是生态保护，为黄岩岛海域的生物多样性提供长期数据。 黄岩岛 其次，科研站常年有人员驻守、设备运行，这相当于对黄岩岛提出了在“主权”层面的实际存在。 更重要的是，黄岩岛扼守着南海与巴士海峡的西侧，这里是重要国际航线的必经之地，一些关键性资源和数据的采集，将为中国未来的南海治理提供战略保障。
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观测站早在2022年就正式纳入中科院野外台站体系，这一体系以长期观测、实时回传数据为主要特征，类似的成功案例已经体现在西沙、南沙两大岛礁的生态观测网络中，而这一次，黄岩岛极有可能成为另一个战略基点。 相比直接的军事手段，在南海构建制度化管理链条才是更强劲的“软实力”，中国近年针对黄岩岛和中沙群岛区域实施了一系列“立规矩”的动作： 2024年正式公布黄岩岛领海基线，接着在2025年设立黄岩岛国家级自然保护区，并于2026年8月发布具体的保护区管理办法。 这些动作看似与军事无关，但效果却十分显著，设立保护区和管理办法，不仅从法律层面稳固了对该海域的主权主张，还以“生态保护”之名慢慢渗透式强化对海域的实际掌控，而观测站的加入，正是制度链条中不可或缺的一环。
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通过这种科学化的方式，中国得以实现对黄岩岛的长效管控，一方面，观测站能够为黄岩岛自然资源“上户口”，提供长期精确的数据支持。 另一方面，它也打破了过去单靠船只巡航维持存在的不稳定状态，实现了更高频、更实时的数据获取与管控。 相比填岛或修码头，观测站的设立是一种更为“润物细无声”的战略手法，既难以对外引发批评，也极大地压缩了其他国家在该海域的活动空间。 菲律宾对此难免关注，但由于观测站名义是“科研与生态保护”，即便菲律宾心知肚明其中的深意，却也没有理由站出来反对。
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在国际舆论面前，任何反对环保与科研的行为都可能显得“不合情理”。 这其实正体现了中国的成熟治理思维，即面对复杂局势，稳扎稳打，先确立规则，再展开深远布局。
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至此，悄无声息的中沙观测站，无异于为黄岩岛周边增添了一颗重要的棋子，那么，在未来，南海局势是否会因这颗棋子发生更大的改变？这还需要时间与实践给出答案。 中国设立中沙观测站这一动作看似低调，但背后显然是大布局的一部分，从黄岩岛到中沙大环礁，通过生态保护、科学监测和制度链条的整合，中国的南海主权与战略地位正在悄然上升。 这步棋落下，全局正在改变，时间会证明，这种“润物细无声”的策略将带来怎样巨大的回响。返回，查看更多。Current article:http://ndkqu6.shuosongzoutunchutao.cfd/fw6s/atvfdjj.html
Published on:20:19:27
